World Food market and Population Growth
The world foods market is expected to be under stress from countries who cannot mitigate the high population growth rate. US population in 2020 was estimated at around 0.5%, population growth rate in 2005 it was 1%. The global population is growing at 1.1% annually, adding 83 million people annually. The current population growth rate is one of the lowest in decades. But the population growth is not equally distributed around the world. The western developed world is concerned with slowing population growth rate and increasing aging population. Japan with a current population of 127 million is expected to have 100 million by 2050 and decline by two-thirds of its current population, by 85 million by 2100, according to United Nation estimates. The US is witnessing a lower growth rate than a decade ago. The same is with India, the growth rate of the population of India in 2020 was 0.99%, the population growth rate was 1.6% in 2005.
Poor countries and regions are experiencing stable population growth. In Sub-Saharan and Central Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asian countries are experiencing a population growth rate of above 2.3%. Sub-Saharan Africa is growing at 2.7%, twice the growth rate of South Asia at 1.2%. Africa is expected to double its population by 2050. Nigeria is expected to replace the united states as the third most populous country by 2050 with a 400 million population. These regions are not well equipped to deal with the growing population. Food security is of top priority for policymakers in these countries.
The debate on world foods market not being able to meet population growth is an old one. The global population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 7.9 billion in 2020. World Food market has increased slightly higher than the population growth rate, maintaining a delicate balance. World food market for cereal production increased to 2767 million tonnes in 2020, a growth of 2.2% compared with 2019. Year on Year growth is stable and healthy, this has led to an increase in per capita food consumption. The hunger rate in most countries has decreased. But, has also plateaued in many regions. Climate change is expected to significantly alter the land under cultivation. The weather pattern is expected to change drastically. Change is expected to hit the global south hard. Most Northern countries are projected to experience warmer climates due to climate change. Russian Federation is expected to witness steady growth in grain cultivation and export.
The US population in 2020 was over 330 million. The future population growth rate is further expected to drop. But, food demand in the US is steadily growing. Mainly due to changing lifestyles and food wastage. Food wastage in the US is about 30%-40% of total food production. Maximum food wastage occurs at the retail and customer end. US wastes around 133 Billion pounds of food valued at USD 161 billion each year.
In 2019, the US consumer, government agencies, and businesses spent about USD 1.78 trillion on food and beverages. US foods market is resource extensive operation, using around 56% of all agricultural land and 67% of freshwater resources. Agriculture was a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 10% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2017. Agriculture and allied activities account for 16% of total fossil fuel consumption in the US in 2017. Food production uses a lot of natural resources, as cultivation land grows scarce, it is expected to cause food scarcity in the future.
About 1.2 billion acres of land in the US were used for agriculture in 2012, an 11% decrease in land use from 1949. 26 million acres of land were under wheat cultivation in 2017. 0.8 million acres of land under oat cultivation, 90 million acres were under soybeans cultivation, 2 million acres under rice cultivation, and 4 million acres under vegetable cultivation. In meat products, poultry has a bigger market share. In 2018, per capita beef availability was 54.6 pounds, chicken availability was 64.5 pounds. Chicken has witnessed increased consumption, it overtook per capita pork consumption in 1999. Fish and shellfish have a moderate per capita availability at 16.1 pounds.
Growing awareness among US consumers about the ill effects of sugar has decreased total sugar consumption. Per capita consumption of corn sweeteners fell from 83.6 pounds in 1999 to 53 pounds in 2019. A similar trend is observed in caloric sweeteners, per capita consumption decreased from 151.1 pounds in 1999 to 123.2 pounds in 2019. Only consumption of refined sugar is expected to increase.
Per capita corn products availability was 36.5 pounds in 2019. Per capita availability of wheat products has decreased to 131.1 pounds from a peak availability of 146.8 pounds in 1997. Customer preference for corn and corn products is growing.
Apples and oranges are the most preferred fruits in America. Large acres of farms are dedicated to apple cultivation. Per capita apple availability was 26 pounds and oranges was 22 pounds in 2019. Potatoes and tomatoes are the most widely used vegetables. Per capita availability of potatoes was 50 pounds and tomatoes with 30 pounds in 2019.
Food insecurity has decreased in the US foods market, but the tread may be affected due to covid-19 induced economic disruption. About 90% of households in the US have food security. 13.6% of households have experienced food insecurity in 2019. About 6%-7% of the US population in 2020 was employed in agriculture and allied activities. Accounting for 10.9% of total jobs in the US. Agriculture contributed to 2.6 million direct jobs. About 13% of household income was spent on food.
Population in India 2020- India foods market
India is the second-most populous country. The population of India in 2020 was estimated to 1.38 billion people. The population growth rate in India is 1.1%, recent studies predict the population is expected to peak at 1.68 billion in 2048 and decline to 1.09 billion in 2100. The country is the largest producer of pulses, jute, and milk. India is the second-largest producer of rice, wheat, groundnut, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables, and cotton. Agriculture is the largest employer in India, about 70% of rural households depend on agriculture and allied activities. Nearly 82% of Indian farmers are small and marginal. Food grain production was 275 Million tons in 2018. India has set a record with 303 million tons with 9.1% growth in the World food market. India is home to the largest cattle population at 190 million. Indian agriculture is very resource-intensive and cereal-centric, excessive resource consumption has serious implications for sustainability and contributes to desertification.
India has achieved food grain self-sufficiency in World food market. But, is home to a quarter of the world’s hungry people and is home to 184 million undernourished, about 14% of the population of India in 2020. Central and many state governments have launched many schemes to combat malnourishment. The country is witnessing a major economic boost and increase in per capita income. The increase in income levels are not equally distributed, a peculiar behavior is observed in the Indian context. The rise of per capita income level is not causing a rise in per capita food consumption. The case is peculiar, in china and Vietnam rise in income level was reflected in the rise of food consumption. The divide is more profound in rural India, per capita consumption of calories and proteins is decreasing. Covid-19 is forecasted to push 230 million into poverty.
About 43 million hectares of land were used for rice cultivation in 2018, to produce 112.91 million tons. Land under wheat cultivation is decreasing in the last 5 years. Total 29 million hectares of land were under wheat cultivation, to produce 99.70 million tons. A total of 1.27 billion hectares of land is used for food grain cultivation. Producing 284 million tons of grains. 29.9 million hectares of land is used for pulses cultivation to produce 25.53 million tons. Government assistance and increased use of technology in agriculture have resulted in increased yield.
India produces 5.3 million metric tons of meat and 75 billion eggs annually. The country is the largest producer of buffalo meat and the second-largest producer of goat meat in World food market. Buffalo meat export forms the bulk of Indian meat exports. The meat segment is underdeveloped in India due to much religious consideration. Current meat consumption in India is 15g/person/day against ICMR recommended consumption of 30g/person/day. The Indian government is incentivizing many stages of the meat industry to promote further growth in World food market
Food insecurity is a major issue in India, the proportion of the Indian population with food insecurity grew from 27.8% in 2014 to 31.6% in 2019. Pushing 488.6 million people into the food insecurity basket. Food insecurity is further expected to rise, recent covid-19 caused economic hardships are expected to push many middle-class families into poverty. Undoing decades of careful policy planning, which helped families escape poverty.
Foods market in UK
The grocery and food segment is the largest private-sector employer, employing about 4.5 million people. The UK foods market contributed to GBP 22.5 billion of exports in drinks and beverages. UK consumer spends about GBP 230 billion on food yearly. The UK foods market is the largest manufacturing sector, overtaking the automobile and aerospace sectors. Online digital sales of food and grocery product have grown at a steady rate. Online sales are valued at GBP 12.7 billion of the World food market. British brands have good brand recognition abroad, which helps to further promote trade. Food wastage is a serious problem with the UK foods market, however this is also a major issue with the World food market. In 2019 UK produced about GBP 20 billion loses and contributing 25 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions.
Newer delivery options in UK foods market
This section discussed the online delivery as a separate business vertical, this is the latest trend in the World food market. Traditionally consumers in the foods market in UK have used supermarkets, mini markets, they still hold considerable popularity not just in UK bu the World food market. But online grocery shopping is expected to rise, this has forced supermarkets to provide online order and home delivery options to consumers. The outside food consumption market has increased, and a large proportion of the population is predicted to eat outside. This has led to the integration of technology to promote online food delivery. Online food delivery startups have entered the segment, to ferry cooked food to parties, outings, and business venues. The UK foods market is expected to grow at a healthy rate. Login to Global Market Database to understand more about the World food market, the market database would give its users a ten year business outlook of the World food market.
